Modelling the supply and need for health professionals for primary health care in Ghana: Implications for health professions education and employment planning.

BACKGROUND: The health workforce (HWF) is critical in developing responsive health systems to address population health needs and respond to health emergencies, but defective planning have arguably resulted in underinvestment in health professions education and decent employment. Primary Health Care (PHC) has been the anchor of Ghana's health system. As Ghana's population increases and the disease burden doubles, it is imperative to estimate the potential supply and need for health professionals; and the level of investment in health professions education and employment that will be necessary to avert any mismatches. METHODS: Using a need-based health workforce planning framework, we triangulated data from multiple sources and systematically applied a previously published Microsoft® Excel-based model to conduct a fifteen-year projection of the HWF supply, needs, gaps and training requirements in the context of primary health care in Ghana. RESULTS: The projections show that based on the population (size and demographics), disease burden, the package of health services and the professional standards for delivering those services, Ghana needed about 221,593 health professionals across eleven categories in primary health care in 2020. At a rate of change between 3.2% and 10.7% (average: 5.5%) per annum, the aggregate need for health professionals is likely to reach 495,273 by 2035. By comparison, the current (2020) stock is estimated to grow from 148,390 to about 333,770 by 2035 at an average growth rate of 5.6%. The health professional's stock is projected to meet 67% of the need but with huge supply imbalances. Specifically, the supply of six out of the 11 health professionals (~54.5%) cannot meet even 50% of the needs by 2035, but Midwives could potentially be overproduced by 32% in 2030. CONCLUSION: Future health workforce strategy should endeavour to increase the intake of Pharmacy Technicians by more than seven-fold; General Practitioners by 110%; Registered general Nurses by 55% whilst Midwives scaled down by 15%. About US$ 480.39 million investment is required in health professions education to correct the need versus supply mismatches. By 2035, US$ 2.374 billion must be planned for the employment of those that would have to be trained to fill the need-based shortages and for sustaining the employment of those currently available.