An age-structured SEIR model simulates the propagation of COVID-19 in the population of Northern Ireland. It is used to identify optimal timings of short-term lockdowns that enable long-term pandemic exit strategies by clearing the threshold for herd immunity or achieving time for vaccine development with minimal excess deaths.
Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland.
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作者:Abernethy Gavin M, Glass David H
| 期刊: | Journal of the Royal Society Interface | 影响因子: | 3.500 |
| 时间: | 2022 | 起止号: | 2022 Mar;19(188):20210896 |
| doi: | 10.1098/rsif.2021.0896 | ||
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