MRI heterogeneity analysis for prediction of recurrence and disease free survival in anal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of image heterogeneity analysis of standard care magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) to predict chemoradiotherapy (CRT) outcome. The ability to predict disease recurrence following CRT has the potential to inform personalized radiotherapy approaches currently being explored in novel clinical trials. METHODS: An IRB waiver was obtained for retrospective analysis of standard care MRIs from ASCC patients presenting between 2010 and 2014. Whole tumor 3D volume-of-interest (VOI) was outlined on T2-weighted (T2w) and diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) of the pre- and post-treatment scans. Independent imaging features most predictive of disease recurrence were added to the baseline clinico-pathological model and the predictive value of respective extended models was calculated using net reclassification improvement (NRI) algorithm. Cross-validation analysis was carried out to determine percentage error reduction with inclusion of imaging features to the baseline model for both endpoints. RESULTS: Forty patients who underwent 1.5 T pelvic MRI at baseline and following completion of CRT were included. A combination of two baseline MR heterogeneity features (baseline T2w energy and DWI coefficient of variation) was most predictive of disease recurrence resulting in significant NRI (p = 0 < 0.001). This was confirmed in cross-validation analysis with 34.8% percentage error reduction for the primary endpoint and 18.1% reduction for the secondary endpoint with addition of imaging variables to baseline model. CONCLUSION: MRI heterogeneity analysis offers complementary information, in addition to clinical staging, in predicting outcome of CRT in anal SCC, warranting validation in larger datasets.