Abstract
BACKGROUND: As multimorbidity becomes common that imposes a considerable burden to patients, but the extent to which widely-used multimorbidity indexes can be applied to quantify disease burden using primary care data in China is not clear. We applied the Chinese Multimorbidity-Weighted Index (CMWI) to health check-ups data routinely collected among older adults by primary care, to examine its validity in measuring multimorbidity associated risks of disability and mortality in annual follow-ups. METHODS: The study utilized data from annual health check-ups of older adults, which included information on individual age, sex, and 14 health conditions at primary care in a district of Guangzhou, Guangdong, China. The risk of CMWI for mortality was analysed in a total sample of 45,009 persons 65 years and older between 2014 and 2020 (average 2.70-year follow-up), and the risk for disability was in a subsample of 18,320 older adults free of physical impairment in 2019 and followed-up in 2020. Risk of death and disability were assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression and binary logistic regression, respectively, with both models adjusted for age and sex variables. The model fit was assessed by the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and C-statistic or the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: One unit increase in baseline-CMWI (Median= 1.70, IQR: 1.30-3.00) was associated with higher risk in subsequent disability (OR = 1.12, 95%CI = 1.05,1.20) and mortality (OR = 1.18, 95%CI = 1.14, 1.22). Participants in the top tertile of CMWI had 99% and 152% increased risks of disability and mortality than their counterparts in the bottom tertile. Model fit was satisfied with adequate AUC (0.84) or C-statistic (0.76) for both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: CMWI, calculated based on primary care's routine health check-ups data, provides valid estimates of disability and mortality risks in older adults. This validated tool can be used to quantity and monitor older patients' health risks in primary care.