Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Chronic absenteeism among kindergarten through grade 12 students has increased considerably after the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between virtual learning during the 2020-2021 school year and chronic absenteeism during the 2021-2022 school year at the school district level. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used a panel of 11 017 school districts throughout the US comprising kindergarten through grade 12 for the 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 school years. EXPOSURES: The key covariates were the percentage of hybrid and virtual school days in the previous school year, with an assumption that these values in the 2018-2019 school year were zero. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Chronic absenteeism rates at the district level, which were regressed on the percentage of school days in a learning mode in the previous school year, demographic characteristic and socioeconomic status controls, plus district and year fixed effects. Observations were weighted by district enrollment, and SEs were clustered at the district level. RESULTS: The dataset includes 11 017 school districts for 2 years and 22 034 observations. Chronic absenteeism rates increased by 13.5 percentage points, from a mean (SD) of 15.9% (8.1%) in the 2018-2019 school year to 29.4% (13.2%) in the 2021-2022 school year. Students whose schools had 100% virtual instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic had chronic absenteeism rates that were 6.9 percentage points (95% CI, 4.8-8.9 percentage points) higher than those that were 100% in person. Hybrid instruction was not associated with increased absenteeism. The association between virtual learning and chronic absenteeism varied by socioeconomic status, with the conditional correlation much larger for at-risk students; chronic absenteeism rates were 10.6 percentage points (95% CI, 7.2-14.1 percentage points) higher among students with 100% of days in virtual learning from districts in the top quintile of poverty rates compared with 100% in-persion districts. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study, chronic absenteeism rates were substantially higher in school districts that used virtual learning during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with in person. Understanding how to reduce chronic absenteeism and use virtual learning without potentially negative consequences are key policy questions moving forward.