Abstract
IntroductionThis study aimed to explore the potential for computed tomography (CT) perfusion and 18-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in predicting sites of future progressive tumour on a voxel-by-voxel basis after radiotherapy and chemotherapy. MethodsTen patients underwent pre-radiotherapy magnetic resonance (MR), FDG-PET and CT perfusion near the end of radiotherapy and repeated post-radiotherapy follow-up MR scans. The relationships between these images and tumour progression were assessed using logistic regression. Cross-validation with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the value of these images in predicting sites of tumour progression. ResultsPre-radiotherapy MR-defined gross tumour; near-end-of-radiotherapy CT-defined enhancing lesion; CT perfusion blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV) and permeability-surface area (PS) product; FDG-PET standard uptake value (SUV); and SUV:BF showed significant associations with tumour progression on follow-up MR imaging (P < 0.0001). The mean sensitivity (±standard deviation), specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of PS were 0.64 ± 0.15, 0.74 ± 0.07 and 0.72 ± 0.12 respectively. This mean AUC was higher than that of the pre-radiotherapy MR-defined gross tumour and near-end-of-radiotherapy CT-defined enhancing lesion (both AUCs = 0.6 ± 0.1, P ≤ 0.03). The multivariate model using BF, BV, PS and SUV had a mean AUC of 0.8 ± 0.1, but this was not significantly higher than the PS only model. ConclusionPS is the single best predictor of tumour progression when compared to other parameters, but voxel-based prediction based on logistic regression had modest sensitivity and specificity.