Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the family plays a pivotal role in older adults' care, there is limited research on how evolving demographic trends affect older adults' support networks and how the trends vary by race. To fill this gap, we examine the influence of shifting family demographics on future care needs for older adults with dementia, emphasizing the unequal health and potential caregiving burdens by race in the United States. METHODS: Using demographic models of kinship, we estimate the availability of potential caregivers, and dementia prevalence among one's kin by race, kin type, and the age of a focal person from 2000 to 2060. We introduce an index called the Dementia Dependency Ratio to assess dementia caregiving demands at the population level, taking into account the age and kinship structure of the population. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that Black individuals tend to have more children, grandchildren, and nieces/nephews as they age. However, Black individuals also tend to have more kin with dementia compared to their White counterparts. This elevated prevalence of dementia among Black kinship networks counterbalances the advantage of having more kin as potential caregivers. A further projection analysis suggests that the racial gap in caregiving demand within the kinship network will widen in the next 4 decades if the racial gap in dementia prevalence remains unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the urgency of reducing racial inequality in dementia prevalence rates and increasing public support for families with extended members affected by dementia. With the shrinkage of nuclear families and population aging in the next few decades, extended family members may undertake more caregiving responsibilities for dementia. We call for a kinship perspective in understanding dementia care in future research.