Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To better risk stratify patients, using baseline characteristics, to help optimise decision-making for men with moderate-to-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) through a secondary analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: After review of the literature, we identified potential baseline risk factors for BPH progression. Using bivariate tests in a secondary analysis of MTOPS data, we determined which variables retained prognostic significance. We then used these factors in Cox proportional hazard modelling to: i) more comprehensively risk stratify the study population based on pre-treatment parameters and ii) to determine which risk strata stood to benefit most from medical intervention. RESULTS: In all, 3047 men were followed in MTOPS for a mean of 4.5 years. We found varying risks of progression across quartiles. Baseline BPH Impact Index score, post-void residual urine volume, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, American Urological Association Symptom Index score, and maximum urinary flow rate were found to significantly correlate with overall BPH progression in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Using baseline factors permits estimation of individual patient risk for clinical progression and the benefits of medical therapy. A novel clinical decision tool based on these analyses will allow clinicians to weigh patient-specific benefits against possible risks of adverse effects for a given patient.