Abstract
BACKGROUND: In China, lack of evidence remains a significant challenge for the national initiative to promote physical activity (PA). We aimed to quantify the beneficial effects of meeting or maintaining the recommended PA level [150 minutes per week (min/wk) of moderate PA or 75 min/wk of vigorous PA or an equivalent combination] on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Chinese population. METHODS: We included 100,560 participants without history of CVD from three cohorts in the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) project. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD events and its subtypes, including stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and CVD death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.3 years (range: 6-15 years), 777,163 person-years and 4693 incident CVD events were observed. Compared with participants who were inactive at baseline, the multivariable adjusted HR (95% CI) of developing CVD was 0.74 (0.69-0.79) for those who met recommended moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) level at baseline. Furthermore, the risk of CVD incidence was reduced with increment of MVPA (P (trend) < 0.001), and the HR (95% CI) of highly-active versus inactive category was 0.62 (0.56-0.68). Compared with individuals who were inactive both at the baseline and follow-up, those keeping active over the period of follow-up had a substantial lower risk of incident CVD with the HR (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.43-0.77). CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrated that meeting and maintaining the recommended MVPA level could reduce the cardiovascular risk. Wider adoption of the PA recommendations would have considerable health impacts to the Chinese population.