Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of fistula repair outcomes 3 months postsurgery. METHODS: We conducted a multicountry prospective cohort study between 2007 and 2010. Outcomes, measured 3 months postsurgery, included fistula closure and residual incontinence in women with a closed fistula. Potential predictors included patient and fistula characteristics and context of repair. Multivariable generalized estimating equation models were used to generate adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Women who returned for follow-up 3-month postsurgery were included in predictors of closure analyses (n=1,274). Small bladder size (adjusted RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.39-1.79), prior repair (adjusted RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.11-1.76), severe vaginal scarring (adjusted RR 1.56, 95% CI 1.20-2.04), partial urethral involvement (adjusted RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11-1.66), and complete urethral destruction or circumferential defect (adjusted RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.33-2.23) predicted failed fistula closure. Women with a closed fistula at 3-month follow-up were included in predictors of residual incontinence analyses (n=1,041). Prior repair (adjusted RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.65), severe vaginal scarring (adjusted RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.67), partial urethral involvement (adjusted RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.27-2.48), and complete urethral destruction or circumferential defect (adjusted RR 2.06, 95% CI 1.51-2.81) were significantly associated with residual incontinence. CONCLUSION: The prognosis for genital fistula closure is related to preoperative bladder size, previous repair, vaginal scarring, and urethral involvement.