Fooled by Randomness. The Misleading Effect of Treatment Crossover in Randomized Trials of Therapies with Marginal Treatment Benefit

随机性之愚弄:治疗交叉对疗效甚微的疗法随机试验的误导性影响

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Abstract

Crossover can bias clinical outcomes of randomized clinical trials by increasing the risk of both type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) errors. To show how crossover can increase type I error, we provide computer simulation and review herein illustrative examples (iniparib, olaratumab) of recently reported RCTs that demonstrated false-positive treatment efficacy signals due to crossover. The ethical issues associated with crossover are also discussed.

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