Abstract
About 160 000 km(2) of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.