Abstract
Implementation of the lung allocation score (LAS) in 2005 led to transplantation of older and sicker patients without altering 1-year survival. However, long-term survival has not been assessed and emphasizing the 1-year survival metric may actually sustain 1-year survival while not reflecting worsening longer-term survival. Therefore, we assessed overall and conditional 1-year survival; and the effect of crossing the 1-year threshold on hazard of death in three temporal cohorts: historical (1995-2000), pre-LAS (2001-2005) and post-LAS (2005-2010). One-year survival post-LAS remained similar to pre-LAS (83.1% vs. 82.1%) and better than historical controls (75%). Overall survival in the pre- and post-LAS cohorts was also similar. However, long-term survival among patients surviving beyond 1 year was worse than pre-LAS and similar to historical controls. Also, the hazard of death increased significantly in months 13 (1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.87) and 14 (1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87) post-LAS but not in the other cohorts. While implementation of the LAS has not reduced overall survival, decreased survival among patients surviving beyond 1 year in the post-LAS cohort and the increased mortality occurring immediately after 1 year suggest a potential negative long-term effect of the LAS and an unintended consequence of increased emphasis on the 1-year survival metric.