Abstract
BACKGROUND: N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (TnT) predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a variety of populations. Whether their predictive value varies by ethnicity is unknown. We sought to determine whether NT-proBNP and TnT improve prediction of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD, independent of CVD risk factors, in a multiethnic population; whether NT-proBNP improves prediction compared with the Framingham Risk Score or the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation; and whether a second NT-proBNP further improves prediction. METHODS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT were measured in 5,592 MESA white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese participants (60% nonwhite; mean age 62.3 ± 10.3 years) in 2000 to 2002 and 2004 to 2005. We evaluated adjusted risk of incident CHD and CVD based on baseline and change in biomarker concentration. RESULTS: Participants were followed up through 2011 and incurred 370 CVD events (232 CHD). Concentrations of NT-proBNP and TnT varied by ethnicity. Both NT-proBNP and TnT were associated with an increased risk of events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CHD [95% CI] for fifth quintile vs other 4 quintiles of NT-proBNP, 2.03 [1.50-2.76]; HR for CHD for detectable vs undetectable TnT, 3.95 [2.29-6.81]). N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide improved risk prediction and classification compared with the Framingham Risk Score and the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation. Change in NT-proBNP was independently associated with events (HR for CHD per unit increase in ΔlogNT-proBNP, 1.95 [1.16-3.26]). None of the observed associations varied by ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT are predictors of incident CHD, independent of established risk factors and ethnicity, in a multiethnic population without known CVD. Change in NT-proBNP may add additional prognostic information.