Abstract
BACKGROUND: The ageing population and increasing prevalence of multimorbidity place greater resource demands on the health systems internationally. Accurate prediction of general practice (GP) services is important for health workforce planning. The aim of this research was to develop a parsimonious model that predicts patient visit rates to general practice. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2016, 1449 randomly selected Australian GPs recorded GP-patient encounter details for 43,501 patients in sub-studies of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health (BEACH) program. Details included patient characteristics, all diagnosed chronic conditions per patient and the number of GP visits for each patient in previous 12 months. BEACH has a single stage cluster design. Survey procedures in SAS version 9.3 (SAS Inc., Cary, NC, USA) were used to account for the effect of this clustering. Models predicting patient GP visit rates were tested. R-square value was used to measure how well each model predicts GP attendance. An adjusted R-square was calculated for all models with more than one explanatory variable. Statistically insignificant variables were removed through backwards elimination. Due to the large sample size, p < 0.01 rather than p < 0.05 was used as level of significance. RESULTS: Number of diagnosed chronic conditions alone accounted for 25.48% of variance (R-square) in number of visits in previous year. The final parsimonious model accounted for 27.58% of variance and estimated that each year: female patients had 0.52 more visits; Commonwealth Concessional Health Care Card holders had 1.06 more visits; for each chronic condition patients made 1.06 more visits; and visit rate initially decreased with age before increasing exponentially. CONCLUSIONS: Number of diagnosed chronic conditions was the best individual predictor of the number of GP visits. Adding patient age, sex and concession card status explained significantly more variance. This model will assist health care planning by providing an accurate prediction of patient use of GP services.