Abstract
OBJECTIVE: There has been a worldwide increment in acute kidney injury (AKI) incidence among elderly orthopedic operative patients. The AKI prediction model provides patients' early detection a possibility at risk of AKI; most of the AKI prediction models derive, however, from the cardiothoracic operation. The purpose of this study is to predict the risk of AKI in elderly patients after orthopedic surgery based on machine learning algorithm models. METHODS: We organized a retrospective study being comprised of 1000 patients with postoperative AKI undergoing orthopedic surgery from September 2016, to June, 2021. They were divided into training (80%;n=799) and test (20%;n=201) sets.We utilized nine machine learning (ML) algorithms and used intraoperative information and preoperative clinical features to acquire models to predict AKI. The performance of the model was evaluated according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Select the optimal model and establish the nomogram to make the prediction model visualization. The concordance statistic (C-statistic) and calibration curve were used to discriminate and calibrate the nomogram respectively. RESULTS: In predicting AKI, nine ML algorithms posted AUC of 0.656-1.000 in the training cohort, with the randomforest standing out and AUC of 0.674-0.821 in the test cohort, with the logistic regression model standing out. Thus, we applied the logistic regression model to establish nomogram. The nomogram was comprised of ten variables: age, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists, hypoproteinemia, hypertension, diabetes, anemia, duration of low mean arterial pressure, mean arterial pressure, transfusion.The calibration curves showed good agreement between prediction and observation in both the training and test sets. CONCLUSION: By including intraoperative and preoperative risk factors, ML algorithm can predict AKI and logistic regression model performing the best. Our prediction model and nomogram that are based on this ML algorithm can help lead decision-making for strategies to inhibit AKI over the perioperative duration.