Abstract
Patient-specific biomechanical models including patient-specific finite-element (FE) models are considered potentially important tools for providing personalized healthcare to patients with musculoskeletal diseases. A multi-step procedure is often needed to generate a patient-specific FE model. As all involved steps are associated with certain levels of uncertainty, it is important to study how the uncertainties of individual components propagate to final simulation results. In this study, we considered a specific case of this problem where the uncertainties of the involved steps were known and the aim was to determine the uncertainty of the predicted strain distribution. The effects of uncertainties of three important components of patient-specific models, including bone density, musculoskeletal loads and the parameters of the material mapping relationship on the predicted strain distributions, were studied. It was found that the number of uncertain components and the level of their uncertainty determine the uncertainty of simulation results. The 'average' uncertainty values were found to be relatively small even for high levels of uncertainty in the components of the model. The 'maximum' uncertainty values were, however, quite high and occurred in the areas of the scapula that are of the greatest clinical relevance. In addition, the uncertainty of the simulation result was found to be dependent on the type of movement analysed, with abduction movements presenting consistently lower uncertainty values than flexion movements.