Abstract
BACKGROUND: Triglyceride (TG) and its related metabolic indices are recognized as important biomarker gauging cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to explore the association between multiple TG-derived metabolic indices including the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) and cardiovascular outcomes to identify valuable predictors for cardiovascular prognosis in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: Data of 1034 patients with T2DM and CHD from China-Japan Friendship Hospital between January 2019 and March 2022 were collected and analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were conducted to examine the associations between AIP, TyG index, TyG-BMI and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to screen the most valuable predictor. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis was employed to examine the relationship between the predictor and prognosis. The goodness-of-fit of models was evaluated using the calibration curve and χ(2) likelihood ratio test. Subgroup analysis and interaction test were performed to control for confounding factors. RESULTS: The overall incidence of MACCEs was 31.04% during a median of 13.3 months of follow-up. The results showed that AIP, TyG index and TyG-BMI were all positively correlated with the risk of MACCEs in patients with T2DM and CHD (P < 0.05). Furthermore, ROC (AUC = 0.899) suggested that AIP had the strongest ability to predict the risk of MACCEs, and the highest AIP values enhanced the risk by 83.5% in the population. RCS model demonstrated that AIP was nonlinearly associated with the incident cardiovascular outcomes (P for nonlinear = 0.0118). The Kaplan-Meier analysis for MACCEs grouped by the AIP tertiles indicated that the probability of cumulative incidences of MACCEs was significantly higher in patients with a higher AIP (all Log rank P < 0.001). Meanwhile, the calibration curve demonstrated an excellent goodness-of-fit of the multivariate model (χ(2) = 13.210, P = 0.105). Subgroup analysis revealed that the trend of positive association of AIP with cardiovascular risk was similar across subgroups except in non-hypertensive individuals. CONCLUSION: Our study, for the first time, may provide valuable information that multiple TG-derived metabolic indices play a crucial role in the risk of MACCEs and it is recommended to monitor the AIP for lipid management in patients with established T2DM and CHD.