Abstract
BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a surrogate marker of insulin resistance, is prospectively associated with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD). METHODS: We included 12,320 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants (aged 54.3 ± 5.7 years) free of a history of PAD at baseline (visit 1: 1987-1989). The TyG index was determined using ln (fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] × fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2), and measured at 5 visits between 1987 and 2013. Incident PAD was defined as the first hospitalization with PAD diagnosis or a new onset of measured ABI < 0.90 during follow-up visits. We quantified the association of both baseline and trajectories of TyG index with incident PAD using Cox regression and logistic regression analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 23 years, 1300 participants developed PAD. After adjustment for traditional PAD risk factors, each 1-SD (0.58) increase in TyG index was associated with an 11.9% higher risk of incident PAD [hazard ratio, 1.119 (95% CI, 1.049-1.195)]. Results were similar when individuals were categorized by TyG index quartiles [hazard ratio, 1.239 (95% CI, 1.028-1.492); comparing extreme quartiles]. Four distinct trajectories of stable TyG indexes at various levels along the follow-up duration were identified [low (22.2%), moderate (43.2%), high (27.5%), and very high (7.1%) trajectory groups]. Compared with those with a TyG index trajectory at a low level, those participants with TyG index trajectories at high and very high levels had an even greater risk of future incident PAD [odds ratio (95%CI): 1.404 (1.132-1.740) and 1.742 (1.294-2.344), respectively] after multivariate adjustments for traditional PAD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher TyG index is independently associated with an increased risk of incident PAD. Long-term trajectories of TyG index help identify individuals at a higher risk of PAD who deserve specific preventive and therapeutic approaches. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trial registration number: The ARIC trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005131.