Abstract
Genetic effects of habitat fragmentation may be undetectable because they are generally a recent event in evolutionary time or because of confounding effects such as historical bottlenecks and historical changes in species' distribution. To assess the effects of demographic history on the genetic diversity and population structure in the Neotropical tree Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae), we used coalescence analyses coupled with ecological niche modeling to hindcast its distribution over the last 21 000 years. Twenty-five populations (644 individuals) were sampled and all individuals were genotyped using eight microsatellite loci. All populations presented low allelic richness and genetic diversity. The estimated effective population size was small in all populations and gene flow was negligible among most. We also found a significant signal of demographic reduction in most cases. Genetic differentiation among populations was significantly correlated with geographical distance. Allelic richness showed a spatial cline pattern in relation to the species' paleodistribution 21 kyr BP (thousand years before present), as expected under a range expansion model. Our results show strong evidences that genetic diversity in D. alata is the outcome of the historical changes in species distribution during the late Pleistocene. Because of this historically low effective population size and the low genetic diversity, recent fragmentation of the Cerrado biome may increase population differentiation, causing population decline and compromising long-term persistence.