Abstract
Wave climate is shifting over the last decades along the Atlantic coasts of Europe ultimately driven by large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability forced by anthropogenic global warming. Changes in wave height and surf zone orbital currents are hypothesized to drive marked shifts in the shape of intertidal organisms such as the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes, whose quality and market price are known to decrease non linearly with the peduncle length: width ratio S. This study evaluates wave trends in NW Iberian Peninsula, using the Spanish Port System 2006-2020 SIMAR wave hindcast. On the other hand, trends in stalked barnacle morphology and quality are estimated from 26 sites at the management regions of Baiona and A Guarda between 2011 and 2020. Results show evidence of temporal changes in barnacle quality and, especially, morphometry caused by simultaneous shifts in winter wave induced orbital currents. Because of the non linear relationship between S and the high quality threshold, large increases in S are usually translated to small reductions in quality. However, we identified a tipping point around S = 2.4 that if surpassed can lead to great drops in barnacle quality. In addition, changes in wave forcing will have different effects at each extraction site, as trends in wave climate are decoupled from barnacle morphometry at steeper sites sheltered from the predominant wave direction. In conclusion, this knowledge could be applied to develop site specific barnacle harvesting strategies based on annual wave climate forecasts. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-024-09838-2.