Abstract
The divergence between the disappearance of primary forests and the appearance of secondary forests indicates a set of circumstances that simultaneously converge in what we called the society-agriculture-forest complex. Such circumstances vary between places and over time and are associated with internal factors-factors originating within the reference system-and external factors-factors originating outside the borders of the reference system-restrict the use of standard strategies for any reality. We present a quantitative model that helps to understand the relationships of the society-agriculture-forest complex as a whole. This comprehensive understanding will allow a clearer discussion of the positive and negative consequences of prioritizing actions on any of the system components. Our model establishes a set of quantitative relationships among: (i) the requirements of food and timber products for society to maintain its structure and functionality, (ii) the level of openness of the society with respect to other societies for the exchange of resources, and (iii) the interface between the economic productive systems and the ecological productive systems. To test the model, the case of Huayopata (Peru) was studied. Findings suggest that the abandonment of agricultural production and, particularly, of tea favors the appearance of secondary forests. However, projects by the Congress of Peru to reactivate the production of tea without adequate technological support to improve the current processes that use firewood for boilers would put the forestry system at risk. In addition, a potential worker 'pull factor' could reconfigure the food system and impact on the local agricultural sector. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02457-6.