Abstract
AIMS: To test the hypotheses that performance on a clock-drawing task (CDT) diminishes over time and that poor performance is associated with development of dementia and reduced survival. METHODS: Participants in the population-based Leisure World Cohort Study were asked to complete a CDT in follow-up questionnaires mailed in 1992 and 1998. Dementia status was determined using in-person evaluations, follow-up questionnaires, hospital data, and death certificates. RESULTS: Of the 4,842 cohort members (mean age 80 years) who completed the CDT in 1992, 1,521 also completed it in 1998. Although performance in the CDT diminished over time in only a proportion of the cohort, the mean total score and the percentage of subjects with correctly drawn clocks decreased with each successive 5-year age group (p = 0.0001) and over time. Mean scores were lower in non-demented subjects later identified as demented compared with those who remained free of dementia. A low CDT score in 1992 was associated with a 28% increased risk of dementia and 13% reduced survival. CONCLUSION: A CDT may help predict cognitive decline and future disability in the elderly. Identification of high-risk individuals using a CDT may lead to earlier diagnosis and treatment and improved patient management.