Abstract
BACKGROUND: The choice of primary hip hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty for displaced femoral neck fracture is still controversial. Revision hip arthroplasty not only increases risk and cost but also could result in worse outcome. Determining the risk factors for revision can help inform medical decision-making and aid in risk stratification of publicly reported outcomes. Therefore, we conducted a nationwide population-based study to identify the disease-related risk factors and construct a risk score nomogram to predict revision surgery. METHODS: Records of all 68,030 femoral neck fracture patients receiving partial hemiarthroplasty (HA) in 2000-2010, with no total hip arthroplasty (THA) or revision HA history, were collected from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate the risk of revision hip replacement (RHA). The score of each risk factor was the quotient of the regression coefficient of the variable by the regression coefficient for a 10-year increase in age. The predictive accuracy was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The revision risk for hemiarthroplasty increased in male, those with schizophrenia and end-stage renal disease patients had 1.58-, 1.88-, and 1.74-fold revision HA risk (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.40-1.78, 1.26-2.79, and 1.29-2.34, respectively). In a predictive model, the cumulative risk score ranged from 0 to 13 with a 5.08 to 91.82 % 10-year predicted RHA risk. The percentage of AUROC for 10-year RHA risk in nomogram was 61.9 (95 % CI = 60.0-63.4). CONCLUSIONS: Males, schizophrenia and end-stage renal disease patients have higher risk of revision surgery after hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fracture.