Abstract
Objective: To determine predictors of health care transitions (i.e., acute care service use, transfers from lower to higher intensity services) among older adults new to long-term services and supports [LTSS]. Method: 470 new LTSS recipients followed for 24 months. Multivariable Poisson regression modeling within a generalized estimating equation framework. Results: Being male, having multiple chronic conditions, lower self-reported physical health ratings and lower quality of life ratings at baseline were associated with increased risk of health care transitions. Older adults in assisted living communities and nursing homes experienced decreases in health care transitions over time, while LTSS recipients at home had no change in risk. LTSS recipients who had orders to receive therapy, compared with those who did not, had a lower relative risk of transitions over time. Discussion: Predictors of future health care transitions support the need for LTSS providers to anticipate and monitor this risk for LTSS recipients.