Abstract
To achieve the long-term goals outlined in the Paris Agreement that address climate change, many countries have committed to carbon neutrality targets. The study of the characteristics and emissions trends of these economies is essential for the realistic formulation of accurate corresponding carbon neutral policies. In this study, we investigate the convergence characteristics of per capita carbon emissions (PCCEs) in 121 countries with carbon neutrality targets from 1990 to 2019 using a nonlinear time-varying factor model-based club convergence analysis, followed by an ordered logit model to explore the mechanism of convergence club formation. The results reveal three relevant findings. (1) Three convergence clubs for the PCCEs of countries with proposed carbon neutrality targets were evident, and the PCCEs of different convergence clubs converged in multiple steady-state levels along differing transition paths. (2) After the Kyoto Protocol came into effect, some developed countries were moved to the club with lower emissions levels, whereas some developing countries displayed elevated emissions, converging with the higher-level club. (3) It was shown that countries with higher initial emissions, energy intensity, industrial structure, and economic development levels are more likely to converge with higher-PCCEs clubs, whereas countries with higher urbanization levels are more likely to converge in clubs with lower PCCEs.