Abstract
BACKGROUND: In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment. METHODS: Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework were used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN) was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts. RESULTS: The risk model for "Don't Achieve Release" provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would not occur by a nominated time but generated an overall risk rating of very low. The ability to obtain compliance had the greatest influence on the likelihood of release occurring. The risk model for "Cause More Harm" provided a 12.5% likelihood that more harm would result from the release, but the overall risk was considered negligible. The efficacy of mosquito management had the most influence, with the perception that the threat of dengue fever had been eliminated, resulting in less household mosquito control, and was scored as the highest ranked individual hazard (albeit low risk). CONCLUSIONS: The risk analysis was designed to incorporate the interacting complexity of hazards that may affect the release of the technology into the environment. The risk analysis was a small, but important, implementation phase in the success of this innovative research introducing a new technology to combat dengue transmission in the environment.