Abstract
Although blood DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles are reported to be associated with breast cancer incidence, they have not been widely used in breast cancer risk assessment. Among a breast cancer case-cohort of 2774 women (1551 cases) in the Sister Study, we used candidate CpGs and DNAm estimators of physiologic characteristics to derive a methylation-based breast cancer risk score, mBCRS. Overall, 19 CpGs and five DNAm estimators were selected using elastic net regularization to comprise mBCRS. In a test set, higher mBCRS was positively associated with breast cancer incidence, showing similar strength to the polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 313 single nucleotide polymorphisms (313 SNPs). Area under the curve for breast cancer prediction was 0.60 for self-reported risk factors (RFs), 0.63 for PRS, and 0.63 for mBCRS. Adding mBCRS to PRS and RFs improved breast cancer prediction from 0.66 to 0.71. mBCRS findings were replicated in a nested case-control study within the EPIC-Italy cohort. These results suggest that mBCRS, a risk score derived using blood DNAm, can be used to enhance breast cancer prediction.