All-source and source-specific air pollution and 10-year diabetes Incidence: Total effect and mediation analyses in the Heinz Nixdorf recall study

An increasing number of studies have been published recently on the association between ambient air pollution (AP) and incident diabetes mellitus (DM), but studies investigating source-specific AP toxicity and potential mediating pathways are rare. We investigated the associations of all-source, traffic-specific, and industry-specific outdoor AP exposure with 10-year incidence of DM and potential mediation via inflammation-associated biomarkers.

Our study shows that long-term exposure to total and source-specific ambient AP may increase DM risk, with consistent results observed across traffic-specific exposures. Decreases in adiponectin may play a potential role along the causal pathway.

Data from participants of the prospective Heinz Nixdorf Recall cohort study who attended the baseline (t0; 2000-2003), 5-year follow-up (t1; 2006-2008), and 10-year follow-up (t2; 2011-2015) examinations was used. For participants without DM at baseline (determined using information on physician diagnosis and glucose-lowering medication), residential long-term exposure (total, traffic-specific, and industry-specific) to particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and accumulation mode particle number concentration (PNAM) were estimated using a chemistry transport model. Covariate-adjusted modified Poisson regression models with robust standard errors were applied to estimate relative risks (RR) for the associations between baseline AP and incident DM at t2. Mediation analyses for adiponectin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) were conducted to estimate natural direct and indirect effects.

Of the 4,814 participants at t0, 2,451 participants (mean baseline age: 58.2 years) were included in the main analysis. Interquartile range (IQR) increases in total PM10 and PNAM were associated with increased risk of DM (e.g., RR: 1.25 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02, 1.53] per 3.8 µg/m3 PM10). Whereas traffic-specific exposures were associated with DM risk for all air pollutants (e.g., RR: 1.24 [95% CI: 1.06, 1.46] per 0.3 µg/m3 PM10), significant associations for industry exposures were limited to NO2 and PNAM (e.g., RR: 1.24 [95% CI: 1.03, 1.49] per 230 particles/mL PNAM). Potential mediation of the association between AP and DM was observed for adiponectin but not for hsCRP and IL-1RA.