Abstract
Using positron emission tomography (PET)-derived amyloid and tau measurements from 1,495 participants, we explore the evolution of these values over time via an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The AFT model assumes a shared pattern of progression, but one which is shifted earlier or later in time for each individual; an individual's time shift for amyloid and for tau are assumed to be linked. The resulting pattern for each outcome consists of an earlier indolent phase followed by sharp progression of the accumulation rate. APOE ε4 shifts the amyloid curve leftward (earlier) by 6.1 years, and the tau curve leftward by 2.6 years. Female sex shifts the amyloid curve leftward by 2.4 years and the tau curve leftward by 2.6 years. Per-person shifts (i.e., the individual's deviation from the population mean) for the onset of amyloid accumulation ranged from 13 years earlier to 13 years later (10th to 90th percentile) than average and 11 years earlier to 14 years later for tau, with an estimated correlation of 0.49. The average delay between amyloid increase and tau increase was 13.3 years.