Abstract
The growing burden of herpes zoster (HZ) in Hong Kong, due to an aging population with increasing life expectancy, may be reduced by vaccination. This study aimed to estimate public health impact of HZ vaccination in Hong Kong. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model was adapted with Hong Kong-specific key model inputs/assumptions, where available. Base case analysis involved adults ≥50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination/recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV]/zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under private market (5% coverage) and mass vaccination (40% coverage) settings. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base case population (3.13 million), without vaccination, 891,024 HZ (28.4%), 156,097 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) (5.0%), and 38,755 (1.2%) HZ ophthalmicus (HZO) were projected over their remaining lifetime. Mass RZV vaccination reduced HZ, PHN, and HZO cases by 204,875 (-23.0%), 31,949 (-20.5%), and 8,471 (-21.9%), respectively, which was 4-5 times that reduced with ZVL. RZV was more efficient than ZVL, with lower number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ/PHN/HZO case (RZV: 7/40/148; ZVL: 27/163/709). Among all age cohorts, the greatest reduction in cases was projected for RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. HZ burden in Hong Kong is substantial. Mass RZV vaccination is expected to considerably reduce public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, compared with no vaccination/ZVL. Results may support value assessment and decision-making regarding vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Hong Kong.