Abstract
Graphic cigarette warnings increase quit attempts. Perceived message effectiveness and message avoidance are predictive of later quit attempts. We sought to examine whether randomized exposure to warning messages would inadvertently increase intentions to use alternate tobacco products while enhancing attempts to quit cigarettes. An online survey of 1392 adult smokers in the US asked participants to rate six randomly selected tobacco warnings (from a set of 319) on perceived effectiveness and avoidance intentions. These two indicators of message effectiveness were calculated at the message-level and then at the individual campaign-level to facilitate causal inference. After viewing a message campaign of six warning messages, participants indicated their intentions to use alternate tobacco products. Sixty-eight percent of participants reported some intention to use e-cigarettes and intentions to use other alternate tobacco products ranged from 31% to 40%. Campaigns of messages eliciting higher avoidance increased the odds of intending to use hookah (aOR: 4.32), smokeless tobacco (aOR: 4.88), and snus (aOR: 8.06), but not the intention to use electronic cigarettes. These relationships are mediated by intentions to quit smoking (all p <.05). Viewing campaigns with higher campaign-level perceived effectiveness increased the intentions to quit, which in turn increased intentions to try alternate tobacco products. Our findings increase the tobacco control community's understanding of unintended consequences of graphic tobacco warnings.