Abstract
BACKGROUND: Changes in the local population are intricately linked to healthcare infrastructure, which subsequently impacts the healthcare sector. A decreasing local population can result in lagging health infrastructure, potentially leading to adverse health outcomes as patients may be at risk of not receiving optimal care and treatment. While some studies have explored the relationship between chronic diseases and local population decline, evidence regarding cancer is insufficient. In this study, we focused on how deteriorating management of chronic diseases such as dyslipidemia could influence the risk of cancer. We investigated the relationship between changes in the local population and cancer incidence among patients with dyslipidemia. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted using claims data. Data from adult patients with dyslipidemia from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort conducted between 2002 and 2015 were included. Population changes in each region were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service and were used to link each individual's regional code. Cancer risk was the dependent variable, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the target associations. RESULTS: Data from 336,883 patients with dyslipidemia were analyzed. Individuals who resided in areas with a decreasing population had a higher risk of cancer than those living in areas with an increasing population (decrease: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.03-1.10; normal: HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.02-1.09). Participants living in regions with a low number of hospitals had a higher risk of cancer than those in regions with a higher number of hospitals (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.12-1.29). CONCLUSION: Patients in regions where the population has declined are at a higher risk of cancer, highlighting the importance of managing medical problems caused by regional extinction. This could provide evidence for and useful insights into official policies on population decline and cancer risk.