Abstract
Non-muscle-invasive papillary urothelial carcinoma (NMIPUC) of the urinary bladder is the most common type of bladder cancer. Intravesical Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) immunotherapy is applied in patients with a high risk of recurrence and progression of NMIPUC to muscle-invasive disease. However, the tumor relapses in about 30% of patients despite the treatment, raising the need for better risk stratification. We explored the potential of spatial distributions of immune cell subtypes (CD20, CD11c, CD163, ICOS, and CD8) within the tumor microenvironment to predict NMIPUC recurrence following BCG immunotherapy. Based on analyses of digital whole-slide images, we assessed the densities of the immune cells in the epithelial-stromal interface zone compartments and their distribution, represented by an epithelial-stromal interface density ratio (IDR). While the densities of any cell type did not predict recurrence, a higher IDR of CD11c (HR: 0.0012, p-value = 0.0002), CD8 (HR: 0.0379, p-value = 0.005), and ICOS (HR: 0.0768, p-value = 0.0388) was associated with longer recurrence-free survival (RFS) based on the univariate Cox regression. The history of positive repeated TUR (re-TUR) (HR: 4.93, p-value = 0.0001) and T1 tumor stage (HR: 2.04, p-value = 0.0159) were associated with shorter RFS, while G3 tumor grade according to the 1973 WHO classification showed borderline significance (HR: 1.83, p-value = 0.0522). In a multivariate analysis, the two models with a concordance index exceeding 0.7 included the CD11c IDR in combination with either a history of positive re-TUR or tumor stage. We conclude that the CD11c IDR is the most informative predictor of NMIPUC recurrence after BCG immunotherapy. Our findings highlight the importance of assessment of the spatial distribution of immune cells in the tumor microenvironment.