Abstract
The study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of PM(2.5) concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas during 2015-2017, and then analyzed its socioeconomic determinants. First, an estimation model considering spatiotemporal heterogeneous relationships was developed to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of PM(2.5) concentration. Additionally, socioeconomic determinants of PM(2.5) concentration were analyzed using a spatial panel Dubin model, which aimed to improve the robustness of the model estimation. The results demonstrated that: (1) The proposed model significantly increased the estimation accuracy of PM(2.5) concentration. The mean absolute error and root-mean-square error were 9.21 μg/m(3) and 13.10 μg/m(3), respectively. (2) PM(2.5) concentration in the study area exhibited significant spatiotemporal changes. Although the PM(2.5) concentration has declined year by year, it still exceeded national environmental air quality standards. (3) The per capita GDP, urbanization rate and number of industrial enterprises above the designated size were the key factors affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of PM(2.5) concentration. This study provided scientific references for comprehensive PM(2.5) pollution control in the study area.