Abstract
A risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of ASFV entry into Japan through pork products illegally brought in by air passengers from China and fed to pigs in Japan. Scenario tree modelling was used with the following entry and exposure pathway considered to be the most likely route of ASF entry: an ASFV infected pork product is illegally brought into Japan by air travellers from China; this pork product is then used in a restaurant where scrap waste is recycled for animal feed and subsequently fed to pigs without being heat-treated. Input parameter values were based on surveys conducted by the authors, scientific data gathered from the literature and official data published by government agencies. The annual probability of ASFV entry into Japan via this pathway was predicted to be 0.20 (90% prediction interval: 0.00-0.90). The wide prediction interval was mainly caused by the uncertainty regarding the dose response relation of ASFV, followed by the probability of an ASF infected pig dying on affected farms, the loading of ASFV in an infected pig and the probability of an illegally imported pork product being heat-treated in China and used in restaurants. The results of scenario analysis revealed that the annual probability of ASFV entry into Japan will increase with an increase in the number of ASF affected farms in China. The probability of ASFV entry will increase substantially even if only a small proportion of Ecofeed is not heat-treated during the production process. The probability will decrease if an increased proportion of farms that feed swill apply heat-treatment before feeding swill to their pigs. These findings indicate that stringent application of heat-treatment of Ecofeed and swill is key to protecting the Japanese pig industry from the introduction of ASFV.