Abstract
While plasma biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are increasingly being evaluated for clinical diagnosis and prognosis, few population-based autopsy studies have evaluated their utility in the context of predicting neuropathological changes. Our goal was to investigate the utility of clinically available plasma markers in predicting Braak staging, neuritic plaque score, Thal phase, and overall AD neuropathological change (ADNC).We utilized a population-based prospective study of 350 participants with autopsy and antemortem plasma biomarker testing using clinically available antibody assay (Quanterix) consisting of Aβ42/40 ratio, p-tau181, GFAP, and NfL. We utilized a variable selection procedure in cross-validated (CV) logistic regression models to identify the best set of plasma predictors along with demographic variables, and a subset of neuropsychological tests comprising the Mayo Clinic Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (Mayo-PACC). ADNC was best predicted with plasma GFAP, NfL, p-tau181 biomarkers along with APOE ε4 carrier status and Mayo-PACC cognitive score (CV AUC = 0.798). Braak staging was best predicted using plasma GFAP, p-tau181, and cognitive scores (CV AUC = 0.774). Neuritic plaque score was best predicted using plasma Aβ42/40 ratio, p-tau181, GFAP, and NfL biomarkers (CV AUC = 0.770). Thal phase was best predicted using GFAP, NfL, p-tau181, APOE ε4 carrier status and Mayo-PACC cognitive score (CV AUC = 0.754). We found that GFAP and p-tau provided non-overlapping information on both neuritic plaque and Braak stage scores whereas Aβ42/40 and NfL were mainly useful for prediction of neuritic plaque scores. Separating participants by cognitive status improved predictive performance, particularly when plasma biomarkers were included. Plasma biomarkers can differentially inform about overall ADNC pathology, Braak staging, and neuritic plaque score when combined with demographics and cognitive variables and have significant utility for earlier detection of AD.