Abstract
Using satellite imagery, drone imagery, and ground counts, we have assembled the first comprehensive global population assessment of Chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica) at 3.42 (95th-percentile CI: [2.98, 4.00]) million breeding pairs across 375 extant colonies. Twenty-three previously known Chinstrap penguin colonies are found to be absent or extirpated. We identify five new colonies, and 21 additional colonies previously unreported and likely missed by previous surveys. Limited or imprecise historical data prohibit our assessment of population change at 35% of all Chinstrap penguin colonies. Of colonies for which a comparison can be made to historical counts in the 1980s, 45% have probably or certainly declined and 18% have probably or certainly increased. Several large colonies in the South Sandwich Islands, where conditions apparently remain favorable for Chinstrap penguins, cannot be assessed against a historical benchmark. Our population assessment provides a detailed baseline for quantifying future changes in Chinstrap penguin abundance, sheds new light on the environmental drivers of Chinstrap penguin population dynamics in Antarctica, and contributes to ongoing monitoring and conservation efforts at a time of climate change and concerns over declining krill abundance in the Southern Ocean.