Abstract
Trade-offs between tree planting programs and wetland conservation are unclear. Here, we employ satellite-derived inundation data and a process-based land surface model (ORCHIDEE-Hillslope) to investigate the impacts of tree planting on wetland dynamics in China for 2000-2016 and the potential impacts of near-term tree planting activities for 2017-2035. We find that 160,000-190,000 km(2) (25.3-25.6%) of historical tree planting over wetland grid cells has resulted in 1,300-1,500 km(2) (0.3-0.4%) net wetland loss. Compared to moist southern regions, the dry northern and western regions show a much higher sensitivity of wetland reduction to tree planting. With most protected wetlands in China located in the drier northern and western basins, continuing tree planting scenarios are projected to lead to a > 10% wetland loss relative to 2000 across 4-8 out of 38 national wetland nature reserves. Our work shows how spatial optimization can help the balance of tree planting and wetland conservation targets.