Abstract
BACKGROUND: Whether stage T1N2-3M0 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients could benefit from surgery and the optimal surgical procedure have remained controversial and unclear. This study aimed to investigate whether stage T1N2-3M0 NSCLC can benefit from different surgery types and develop a tool for survival prediction. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify patients diagnosed with stage T1N2-3M0 NSCLC between 2000 and 2015. A 1:1 propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis was used to balance the distribution of clinical characteristics. Survival analyses were performed by using the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. All patients were randomly split at a ratio of 7:3 into training and validation cohorts. The nomogram was constructed by integrating all independent predictors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The model's performance was evaluated by discrimination, calibration ability, and risk stratification ability. RESULTS: A total of 4,671 patients were enrolled. After 1:1 PSM, the distribution proportions of clinical characteristics in 1,146 patients were balanced (all P>0.05). The non-surgical approach was associated with worse survival compared with sublobectomy and lobectomy in the unmatched and matched cohorts. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that sublobectomy and lobectomy were both related to better OS and CSS rates compared with no surgery (P<0.001). Moreover, the results of subgroup analyses based on age, N stage, and radiotherapy or chemotherapy strategy were consistent. A total of 801 patients were included in the training cohort and 345 cases constituted the validation cohort. The nomogram constructed for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS prediction showed good discrimination, performance, and calibration both in the training and validation sets. Significant distinctions in survival curves between different risk groups stratified by prognostic scores were also observed (all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Stage T1N2-3M0 NSCLC patients could benefit from sublobectomy or lobectomy, and lobectomy provides better survival benefits. We developed and validated nomograms, which could offer clinicians instructions for strategy making.