Abstract
TV drama, through synchronization with social phenomena, allows the audience to resonate with the characters and desire to watch the next episode. In particular, drama ratings can be the criterion for advertisers to invest in ad placement and a predictor of subsequent economic efficiency in the surrounding areas. To identify the dissemination patterns of social information about dramas, this study used machine learning to predict drama ratings and the contribution of various drama metadata, including broadcast year, broadcast season, TV stations, day of the week, broadcast time slot, genre, screenwriters, status as an original work or sequel, actors and facial features on posters. A total of 800 Japanese TV dramas broadcast during prime time between 2003 and 2020 were collected for analysis. Four machine learning classifiers, including naïve Bayes, artificial neural network, support vector machine, and random forest, were used to combine the metadata. With facial features, the accuracy of the random forest model increased from 75.80% to 77.10%, which shows that poster information can improve the accuracy of the overall predicted ratings. Using only posters to predict ratings with a convolutional neural network still obtained an accuracy rate of 71.70%. More insights about the correlations between drama metadata and social information dissemination patterns were explored.