Abstract
To resolve the capacity of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) to enhance fish productivity it is first necessary to understand how environmental conditions affect the distribution and abundance of fishes independent of potential reserve effects. Baseline fish production was examined from 2002-2004 through ichthyoplankton sampling in a large (10,878 km(2)) Southern Californian oceanic marine reserve, the Cowcod Conservation Area (CCA) that was established in 2001, and the Southern California Bight as a whole (238,000 km(2) CalCOFI sampling domain). The CCA assemblage changed through time as the importance of oceanic-pelagic species decreased between 2002 (La Niña) and 2003 (El Niño) and then increased in 2004 (El Niño), while oceanic species and rockfishes displayed the opposite pattern. By contrast, the CalCOFI assemblage was relatively stable through time. Depth, temperature, and zooplankton explained more of the variability in assemblage structure at the CalCOFI scale than they did at the CCA scale. CalCOFI sampling revealed that oceanic species impinged upon the CCA between 2002 and 2003 in association with warmer offshore waters, thus explaining the increased influence of these species in the CCA during the El Nino years. Multi-scale, spatially explicit sampling and analysis was necessary to interpret assemblage dynamics in the CCA and likely will be needed to evaluate other focal oceanic marine reserves throughout the world.