Abstract
BACKGROUND: A primary goal of this study was to establish the serological mechanistic correlate of protection (mCoP) for an inactivated Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine. METHODS: We used the Prentice criterion framework and scaled logit model to explore the relationship between the neutralizing antibody (NTAb) and EV71-associated disease, and to build a protection curve for estimating the efficacy of EV71 vaccine. Data of NTAb at day 56 post-vaccination and the occurrence of EV71-associated disease during a 12-month follow-up period were collected from a phase 3 efficacy trial of EV71 vaccine in this study. RESULTS: NTAb at day 56 post-vaccination in participants met the Prentice criterion framework. According to the protection curve, the antibody levels of 14.7, 27.8, 55.7, 129.0 and 459.4 (U/mL) were associated with 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% clinical protection rate, respectively. Vaccine efficacy predicted by the model was 81.5%, which was very similar to the actual vaccine efficacy of 80.4% (95% CI, 58.2, 90.8) observed in the phase 3 trial. CONCLUSIONS: NTAb titers post-vaccination can be validated as mCoP for evaluating the efficacy of an inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine, with a titers of 14.7 (U/ml) as a surrogate associated with the protection of 50% against EV71-associated disease.