Good weather for a ride (or not?): how weather conditions impact road accidents - a case study from Wielkopolska (Poland)

天气适合骑行吗?(或者不适合?):天气状况如何影响道路交通事故——以波兰大波兰省为例

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Abstract

This study offers a likely assessment of extreme meteorological events' impact on human perceptivity, frame of mind or even health during driving which might have had a consequence as a car accident. Research covered an analysis of car accidents during period 2010-2019 in the Wielkopolska (Poland) and four indices like maximum daily temperature, maximum value of humidex, difference between maximum temperatures observed from day to day and also difference between mean atmospheric pressure at the sea level observed from day to day. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) approach was used to obtain the relationship between these indices and car accidents. Our finding evidence that the "good weather for a ride" conditions are actually generating an increased risk of accidents. For indices related to high temperature, i.e., maximum temperature and humidex, it was possible to identify the critical values by which the risks of car accidents were the highest.

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