Abstract
BACKGROUND: The NCCN clinical guidelines recommended core needle biopsy for breast lesions classified as Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 4, while category 4A lesions are only 2-10% likely to be malignant. Thus, a large number of biopsies of BI-RADS 4A lesions were ultimately determined to be benign, and those unnecessary biopsies may incur additional costs and pains. However, it is important to emphasize that the current risk prediction model focuses primarily on the details and complex risk features of US or MG findings, which may be difficult to apply in order to benefit from the model. To stratify and manage BI-RADS 4A lesions effectively and efficiently, a more effective and practical predictive model must be developed. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 465 patients with BI-RADS ultrasonography (US) category 4A lesions, diagnosed between January 2019 and July 2019 in Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital and National Clinical Research Center for Cancer. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors. To stratify and predict the malignancy of BI-RADS 4A lesions, a nomogram combining the risk factors was constructed based on the multivariate logistic regression results. In order to determine the predictive performance of our predictive model, we used the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and the decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical benefits. RESULTS: Based on our analysis, 16.3% (76 out of 465) of patients were pathologically diagnosed with malignant lesions, while 83.6% (389 out of 465) were diagnosed with benign lesions. According to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, age (OR = 3.414, 95%CI:1.849-6.303), nipple discharge (OR = .326, 95%CI:0.157-.835), palpable lesions (OR = 1.907, 95%CI:1.004-3.621), uncircumscribed margin (US) (OR = 1.732, 95%CI:1.033-2.905), calcification (mammography, MG) (OR = 2.384, 95%CI:1.366-4.161), BI-RADS(MG) (OR = 5.345, 95%CI:2.934-9.736) were incorporated into the predictive nomogram (C-index = .773). There was good agreement between the predicted risk and the observed probability of recurrence. Furthermore, we determined that 153 was the best cutoff score for distinguishing between patients in the low- and high-risk groups. Malignant lesions were significantly more prevalent in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients. CONCLUSION: Based on clinical, US, and MG features, we present a predictive nomogram to reliably predict the malignancy risk of BI-RADS(US) 4A lesions, which may assist clinicians in the selection of patients at low risk of malignancy and reduce the number of false-positive biopsies.