Abstract
PURPOSE: Essential cancer medicine stock outs are occurring at an increasing frequency worldwide and represent a potential barrier to delivery of standard therapy in patients with cancer in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of cancer medicine stock outs on delivery of optimal therapy in Botswana. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients with common solid tumor malignancies who received systemic cancer therapy in 2016 at Princess Marina Hospital, Gaborone, Botswana. Primary exposure was the duration of cancer medicine stock out during a treatment cycle interval, when the cancer therapy was intended to be administered. Mixed-effects univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to calculate the association of the primary exposure, with the primary outcome, suboptimal therapy delivery, defined as any dose reduction, dose delay, missed cycle, or switch in intended therapy. RESULTS: A total of 378 patients met diagnostic criteria and received systemic chemotherapy in 2016. Of these, 76% received standard regimens consisting of 1,452 cycle intervals and were included in this analysis. Paclitaxel stock out affected the highest proportion of patients. In multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression, each week of any medicine stock out (odds ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7 to 2.13; P < .001) was independently associated with an increased risk of a suboptimal therapy delivery event. CONCLUSION: Each week of cancer therapy stock out poses a substantial barrier to receipt of high-quality cancer therapy in low- and middle-income countries. A concerted effort between policymakers and cancer specialists is needed to design implementation strategies to build sustainable systems promoting a reliable supply of cancer medicines.