Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The hart's tongue fern (HTF) complex is a monophyletic group composed of five geographically segregated members with divergent abundance patterns across its broad geographic range. We postulated hierarchical systems of environmental controls in which climatic and land-use change drive abundance patterns at the global scale, while various ecological conditions function as finer scale determinants that further increase geographic disparities at regional to local scales. METHODS: After quantifying the abundance patterns of the HTF complex, we estimated their correlations with global climate and land-use dynamics. Regional determinants were assessed using boosted regression tree models with 18 potential ecological variables. Moreover, we investigated long-term population trends in the USA to understand the interplay of climate change and anthropogenic activities on a temporal scale. KEY RESULTS: Latitudinal climate shifts drove latitudinal abundance gradients, and regionally different levels of land-use change resulted in global geographic disparities in population abundance. At a regional scale, population isolation, which accounts for rescue effects, played an important role, particularly in Europe and East Asia where several hot spots occurred. Furthermore, the variables most strongly influencing abundance patterns greatly differed by region: precipitation seasonality in Europe; spatial heterogeneity of temperature and precipitation in East Asia; and magnitudes of past climate change, temperature seasonality and edaphic conditions in North America. In the USA, protected populations showed increasing trends compared with unprotected populations at the same latitude, highlighting the critical role of habitat protection in conservation measures. CONCLUSIONS: Geographic disparities in the abundance patterns of the HTF complex were determined by hierarchical systems of environmental controls, wherein climatic and land-use dynamics act globally but are modulated by various regional and local determinants operating at increasingly finer scales. We highlighted that fern conservation must be tailored to particular geographic contexts and environmental conditions by incorporating a better understanding of the dynamics acting at different spatiotemporal scales.