Abstract
Background and Objectives: Cervical cancer (CC) is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. CC prevention is based on screening and HPV vaccination. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused difficulties in implementing CC-preventative measures. The aim of this study was to collect data on the implementation of CC prophylaxis in Poland provided by public and private health care with a particular focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and attempt to estimate the level of CC-screening implementation by 2026 under public and private health care. Materials and Methods: Data on the implementation of privately funded (2016-2021) and publicly funded (2014-2021) CC-preventative measures in Poland were examined. The Prophet algorithm, which positions itself as an automatic forecasting procedure and represents a local Bayesian structural time-series model, was used to predict data. The correlation test statistic was based on Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient and follows a t distribution. An asymptotic confidence interval was given based on Fisher's Z transform. Results: In 2021, a significantly higher population screening coverage was observed in private health care (71.91%) than in the public system (12.6%). Our estimation assumes that the adverse downward trend of population coverage (pap smear CC screening) in the public system will continue to 5.02% and in the private health system to 67.92% in 2026. Correlation analysis showed that with the increase in the sum of HPV tests and LBC, the percentage of Pap smear coverage in the private healthcare sector decreases r = -0.62, p = 0.260 df = 3, CI = [-0.97, 0.57]. The amount of HPV vaccinations provided in private health care is steadily increasing. Immunization coverage of the population of girls aged 9-18 years under private health care at the end of the observation period was 4.3% (2021). Conclusions: It is necessary to reorganize the public CC-screening system in Poland based on a uniform reporting system for tests performed in both public and private health care using the model of action proposed by us. We recommend the introduction of a national free HPV vaccination program funded by the government and implemented in public and private health care facilities.