Abstract
Dispersal is a life-history trait directly affecting population dynamics and species range shifts and thus playing a prominent role in the response to climate change. Nonetheless, the relationship between extreme climatic events and dispersal has received little attention in birds. Here we focused on climatic, demographic and individual factors affecting the dispersal propensity of a major glossy ibis population. We performed a capture-resighting analysis on individuals born and observed at Doñana (South-West Spain) over fourteen years. We applied a multiple analytical approach to show that single-site capture-resighting estimates were a reliable index of dispersal propensity from the area. We focused on the emigration of Doñana-born individuals sporadically (transients) and regularly (residents) frequenting their natal area. Droughts during two out of 14 study years caused higher apparent dispersal rates, explaining most of the annual variation in these rates. The age structure of Doñana-born individuals resighted simultaneously locally and in Morocco in one week over the 2010 autumn confirmed that the 2005 drought boosted permanent emigration. As numbers increased steadily during non-drought years since the formation of the colony in 1996 to several thousand pairs, philopatry increased gradually, while transients probability appeared to be related to average breeding success. Age, sex, density, quality of foraging habitat and breeding success in the previous season were not found to directly affect apparent dispersal. Nonetheless, autumn sex ratio gradually switched from male (≈0.68) to female-skewed (≈0.44) by the end of the study period, suggesting that males and females respond differently to high densities reached in recent years. This study demonstrates the importance of extreme climatic events as a powerful motor for spread of species in expansion. Also, it suggests different factors drive emigration of individuals according to their amount of experience in the area (e.g. transients vs residents).