Abstract
Climate change and human activities are the primary drivers influencing changes in runoff dynamics. However, current understanding of future hydrological processes under scenarios of gradual climate change and escalating human activities remains uncertain, particularly in tropical regions affected by deforestation. Based on this, we employed the SWAT model coupled with the near future (2021-2040) and middle future (2041-2060) global climate models (GCMs) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6 (SSP1 + RCP2.6), SSP2-4.5 (SSP2 + RCP4.5), SSP3-7.0 (SSP3 + RCP7.0), and SSP5-8.5 (SSP5 + RCP8.5)) from the CMIP6 and the CA-Markov model to evaluate the runoff response to future environmental changes in the Dingan River Basin (DRB). The quantification of the impacts of climate change and land use change on future runoff changes was conducted. The results revealed a non-significant increasing trend in precipitation during the historical period (1999-2018). Furthermore, all three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) exhibited an upward trend in precipitation from 2021 to 2060. Notably, the SSP5-8.5 scenario demonstrated a highly significant increase (P < 0.01), while the SSP2-4.5 scenario displayed a non-significant decreasing trend. The future precipitation pattern exhibits a decrease during spring and winter, while showing an increase in summer and autumn. The temperature exhibited a significant increase (P < 0.05) across the four future scenarios, with amplitudes of 0.24 °C/(10 years), 0.36 °C/(10 years), 0.36 °C/(10 years), and 0.50 °C/(10 years) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 respectively. The future trend of land use change entails a continuous increase in cultivated land and a corresponding decrease in artificial forest land. By 2032, the area of cultivated land is projected to witness a growth of 4.10%, while artificial forest coverage will experience a decline of 4.45%. Furthermore, by 2046, the extent of cultivated land is anticipated to expand by 4.41%, accompanied by a reduction in artificial forest cover amounting to 5.39%. The average annual runoff during the historical period was 53.35 m³/s, and the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test showed that it exhibited a non-significant increasing trend. Compared with the historical period, the comprehensive impact of climate change and land use will cause changes in the runoff by 0.49%, 1.98%, - 3.13%, and 3.65% for the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 in the near future, and - 3.24%, 1.30%, - 3.75% and 18.24% in the middle future respectively. The intra-annual variations in future runoff suggest an earlier peak and a more concentrated distribution of runoff during the wet season (May to October). Compared to historical periods, the total runoff in the wet season under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios increased by 6.53%, 8.91%, 7.17%, and 7.39%, respectively. The research findings offer significant insights into the future hydrological processes in tropical regions, while also serving as a valuable reference for watershed water resource management and disaster control.